Month: July 2019

What separates conspiracy theory from conspiracy fact?

Tin foil is a lie!

We use aluminum for foil these days, not tin, because it is cheaper and stronger, but we persist in calling it tin. The tin foil is inaccurately named, and everybody knows it, but I’m not proposing a swift, orderly change because this isn’t some sort of conspiracy, just imprecise language.

Whatever we call the foil, it’s pretty useful. I like to line pans and cookie sheets with it so that I don’t have to scrub them, but it’s also good for covering the thin parts of large pieces of meat to prevent burning, and of course, for storage. One thing I don’t do with it is wrap it around my head and wear it as a hat, because I’m no conspiracy theorist.

We laugh at conspiracy theorists, and we are right to do so. Whether it’s the nuts who claim we faked the moon landing or the loons who say the government is controlling our minds with fluoridation or chemtrails or microwaves, they are fools to believe as they do, and doubly so for thinking us fools for disbelieving. Perhaps the worst theories are the ones that are fundamentally political and often blatantly racist: consider such antisemitic favorites as the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the blood libel, and Holocaust denialism.

At heart, conspiracy theories posit simple-sounding, emotionally-satisfying explanations for why specific things are bad. As a result—instead of having to deal with a cause that is abstract, speculative, and statistical—believers have a villain to hate.

The psychological rewards are obvious: if there’s a bad guy, then they’re the good guy. If there’s a secret plot that is hidden from all eyes, then they’re special for seeing right through it and being in the know. And if there’s something horrible that they really want to do to other people (see above), there’s a justification so overwhelming that it is (ahem) hard to believe.

Conspiracy theorists believe as they do because they want to, not because they have to. The evidence didn’t force them to accept the conclusion; the conclusion was accepted regardless of or even despite the evidence because it was desirable in itself and for what it brings. Sometimes, they posit these theories to explain away inconvenient truths that they cannot accept. And often, those who create and spread these lies do so on a knowing, self-serving basis.

What gives it away is just how unwilling they are to consider that they might be wrong. They believe (or say they do) because they want it to be true, not because it is. They implicitly recognize this, which is why they overreact to criticism by doubling down (“the more you try to dissuade me, the more convinced I become”), circular reasoning (“the fact that you’re denying it is proof that it must be true”), and paranoia used to reject expertise (“trust no one”).

But not every theory about conspiracies is a conspiracy theory in the normal sense, because there are two necessary elements. The first element of a proper conspiracy theory is that it’s about an action, often an ongoing one, that requires the long-term cooperation of many people who are working in concert to achieve their goals.

This part is actually easy; it’s literally the whole point of a political party or a corporation or a glee club (which is why we should never trust any of them unconditionally, especially not glee clubs). People “conspire”, in this limited sense, all the time, often quite successfully. The second element, which turns out to be the tricky part, is that the conspiracy has to effectively remain secret. After all, it’s not much of a conspiracy if everyone knows. Or is it?

What makes conspiracies implausible, even ridiculous, is that the more people they supposedly involve and the broader the supposed actions are and the longer they supposedly go on, the less likely it is for them to keep it all secret. With so many people, it’s only a matter of time before one of them spills the beans, or screws the pooch and is noticed.

Sure, you can try to explain this away by positing secondary conspiracies to silence, discredit, and even kill those who tell the truth about the primary one, but it quickly stretches all credulity. Two can keep a secret, if one is dead. True secrecy therefore requires a murder spree.

Consider one theory about a truly depraved conspiracy. Imagine if a prominent individual, such as a slimy, Jewish Wall Street billionaire who owns a gossip magazine, were to make a habit of hiring girls—and I do mean “girls”, as many were in their early teens—to “massage” him and perform various sex acts, sometimes by forcing them physically.

Further, imagine if he had “lent” these girls out to famous, powerful people to generate blackmail material and ensure that he was owed favors so he was able to continue enjoying his child sex ring unbothered by law enforcement. Imagine if this involved over 75 victims and went on for over 6 years. Imagine if this remained an open secret; known by many but not acknowledged, much less acted upon appropriately.

Preposterous! Except that it happened and you probably know all about it.

Ok, fine, it happened, but it’s not a proper conspiracy theory because he was unable to keep it up indefinitely. He was, however, able to keep it under wraps for a long time, and then almost entirely avoid the consequences of his crimes. He got “the deal of a lifetime”, and pretty much walked away scott free.

This travesty of justice has since received increased scrutiny, and now he’s under arrest again, so perhaps the arm of the law is long enough that even he can’t escape it, but if so, then the wheels of justice have turned exceedingly slowly, perhaps too slowly. He’s 66 years old right now, and still filthy rich, so he just might be able to drag this out until he dies. If not, he’ll die in jail, which would be just.

The lesson here is that the sort of thing that would be easy to dismiss as a conspiracy theory can actually happen in real life, it just can’t be kept secret forever. It may, however, be possible for the guilty to get away with it for quite a while. The dirty deed would not be a secret, but it also would not be broadly accepted as factual, much less result in intervention and punishment.

Now consider another theory about a conspiracy, this time with even bigger stakes. Imagine if a corrupt foreign government were to use hacking, social networks, and sexy spies to compromise powerful political organizations and even a major party so as to ensure that their asset becomes the American president. This is wild shit, straight out of the Manchurian Candidate, and yet the claim came from President Jimmy Carter and is supported by the conclusions of 16 intelligence agencies.

It turns out that it’s entirely possible to do this sort of thing, at least if you’re Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, and to get away with it for years, though not to keep it secret. It’s been in plain sight since the primaries, but there is a gap between the truth being apparent to anyone paying attention and it being incontrovertible to the point where it cannot be ignored, even by those who would prefer to.

So far, nothing much has happened to Trump, and he may yet get re-elected instead of impeached. He may get away with it, even though his presidency is entirely illegitimate and he is a corrupt, traitorous pawn of Russia. He only has one term left, and he’s 73 and in poor health. The grave may get him before justice ever does.

There is precedent for this. Consider that Nixon was not just guilty of ordering the break-in of the DNC HQ in the Watergate Hotel, but was variously corrupt and criminal, yet it took years for him to be brought to justice. Even then, most of his violations were ignored, and he dodged the bullet by getting pardoned instead of being impeached. He never even faced criminal charges.

So, where does this leave us? Well, Carter has pointed out that the American emperor wears no clothes. Mueller did, too, albeit in drier terms and at greater length. The wheels of justice are turning, however slowly, and we can only hope that they grind exceedingly fine. Even if we never stop Trump, perhaps we can purge the Russian taint from the American right wing and block the political aspirations of the next generation of fascists, including Trump’s own children.

In the meantime, we should expect that anyone who mentions the plain fact that Trump is a traitor and the fake president can expect to be dismissed as a conspiracy theorist. With so much evidence, though, you’d have to wear a tin foil hat and pull it down over your eyes to deny the plain truth about the man in the Oval Office. The real conspiracy theory is the idea that Trump is the legitimate POTUS.